Sporting Cristal Frauen — Alianza Lima (Frauen): Spielprognose am 20. September 2026

Prediction: Sporting Cristal Frauen wins. Odds 3.06, confidence 56%. The market prices the home win at 29%, a gap of 27 points in our favor. The line has not moved since opening on 20.09.2026 at 18:00, and the bookmakers have not adjusted for the structural difference between the two teams. The prediction is 1:1 or 2:1.

Standings and recent results

Sporting Cristal Frauen sits third with 21 points after 10 matches, seven wins and three losses. Alianza Lima (Frauen) is fourth with 20 points, six wins, two draws, two losses. The one-point gap makes this a tight contest, but the quality of results differs.

Alianza Lima has won five consecutive matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding only 2. Sporting Cristal won four of their last five, with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded. Cristal schießt mehr, Alianza Lima konvertiert besser.

Head-to-head and home advantage

The two teams have met only once, on 30.05.2026, when Alianza Lima won 1:0 at home. That result is the only data point available. Sporting Cristal lost their last home match 0:2 to Atlético Andahuaylas, but the model does not weight a single defeat heavily when other indicators point the other way.

The draw probability is 22%, both teams to score 58%, and three or more goals 60%. The most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 10%, 2:1 at 10%, and 1:0 at 9%. A home win is among the top three outcomes.

What the market has missed

The 29% market probability for a home win does not reflect Sporting Cristal's attacking output. They average 9.0 shots on target per match compared to Alianza Lima's 3,33, but the shot volume tells a different story about who creates chances.

Die Buchmacher blenden die Serie aus, da sie gegen schwächere Gegner fiel. The model accounts for this through the expected goals differential, which favors the home side.

Wann die Prognose nicht aufgeht

A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down in matches, that is the main threat. If Alianza Lima controls possession without creating clear chances and the match ends 1:1, the prediction does not hold. The 22% draw probability is low, but not zero, and a single goal difference would change everything.