MLB
Dodgers
Cardinals
Prediction for Dodgers — Cardinals
69%
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Cubs — Reds: match prediction
Cubs
Reds
Prediction for
Win: Reds
56%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
44%
1
56%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 04:43- Кабс, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Редс, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Head-to-head: 1 games, Кабс — 0, Редс — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Cubs
WLLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Reds
LLWWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Head to head 1
0Cubs
0Draw
1Reds
All head-to-head
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 04:43Reds win on model edge
The Reds take this game. The model puts their expected runs at 5 against 4.6 for the Cubs, and that half-run advantage, combined with Reds winning the reverse fixture 10:8 at Wrigley Field, makes the away side the pick.
Cubs have lost four of their last five home games. They scored 19 and conceded 32 in that run, with defeats coming against the Cardinals (4:11, 4:8), White Sox (0:3), and the Reds (8:10). Only the 3:0 win over the Cardinals on 14 August breaks the pattern. The defence has been porous, and the latest meeting against Cincinnati confirms the vulnerability.
The Reds sit slightly better. Two wins from five, including the 10:8 victory in Chicago, and a goal difference of 25 for and 32 against. Their results have been mixed — a 5:4 win over the Cardinals on 19 August, a 9:10 loss the following day, and a 1:7 defeat to the Marlins — but the edge over the Cubs in recent form is clear.
The 10:8 result on 28 August is the only head-to-head in the data, and it went to the visitors.
The model expects 4.6 runs for the Cubs and 5 for the Reds. It gives 0% for a draw and 0% for both teams scoring — which reads as a prediction for one side to outscore the other decisively rather than a tight contest. A Reds win holds if they replicate the attacking output from the first encounter.