Diyala vs Al-Karma: match prediction on 3 September 2026

I see no grounds to back Diyala against Al-Karma on Wednesday. The visitors sit third on 8 points from 4 matches without a defeat, while the hosts languish 9th on 5 points with one loss already. The model puts 47% confidence for an Al-Karma win, and the numbers behind that are straightforward: 1.3 expected goals away against 0.8 at home, with the most likely outcome 0:1 at 16%.

Their last five matches: 3:3 draw at home against Al-jolan Sc on 29 August, then 2:2 away at Zakho. A 2:1 loss to Mosul followed before they beat Al-Talaba 2:1 at home and Duhok 1:0 at home in June. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 8 across those five games. But they sit 9th in the table, and their defensive record tells the fuller story: 40 goals conceded in 10 matches averages 4 per game, and they concede heavily in the first half. Nearly a third of their goals against come between 31 and 45 minutes, while 18% fall in the opening 15 minutes.

They have conceded just 3 goals in that span, including a 2:0 home win over Karbala on 30 August. They drew 1:1 away at Al Kahrabaa, then won 2:1 against Al Shorta SC at home before drawing 1:1 with Mosul at home on 15 August. The 3:0 victory away at Al Kahrabaa in June completes the picture. Their expected goals of 1.3 reflect that attacking output, and they score most of their own goals late — 34% come in the final 15 minutes. They also concede heavily at the end of matches, with 42% of their goals against falling in the 76-90 period.

The head-to-head does not help Diyala. In four meetings since January 2024, they have won zero, drawn three and lost one. The most recent fixture on 27 May 2026 ended 1:0 to Al-Karma at their own ground. The other three matches produced two goalless draws and a 1:1 at Diyala's stadium. The pattern is clear: Al-Karma have taken points here, and Diyala have not found a way past them.

The model's three most likely scores are 0:1, 0:0 and 1:1, each carrying 13-16% probability. The draw sits at 29%, both teams to score at 39%, and 3 or more goals at 34%. Diyala score 43% of their goals after the 76th minute. Al-Karma concede 42% in the final 15 minutes. A late Diyala surge is possible.

My selection depends on Diyala do not find a way to exploit that late weakness. A draw suits Al-Karma — they know how to kill a game. But if Diyala score first and hold on, or if Al-Karma lose their composure in the closing stages, the 47% confidence evaporates. Otherwise, the visitors take the points.