Spišská Nová Ves vs Podbrezová: match prediction on 8 September 2026

Podbrezová to win. The model expects 4.5 goals for the visitors against 0.5 for Spišská Nová Ves, and the three most probable scorelines—0:4, 0:5, 0:3—all end with Podbrezová ahead. The conclusion stops holding if Spišská Nová Ves scores first and manages to hold the result, because a lead changes how Podbrezová would need to approach the game.

Spišská Nová Ves have won three of their last five matches, losing two, with 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their most recent result was a 4:0 away victory over Geča in the Cup on 26 August. Podbrezová sit slightly higher with 10 points from three wins, one draw and one loss, having scored 11 and conceded 9. Their last outing was a 2:2 home draw with Košice on 29 August, and before that a 5:0 defeat away at Dunajska Streda on 22 August.

The model's figures do not suggest a close contest. Eighty-seven percent of simulations produce three or more goals in total, while the draw probability stands at just 3%. Both teams to score comes in at 36%, which means the model expects Podbrezová to find the net while Spišská Nová Ves may not. The two most likely outcomes are 0:4 at 12% and 0:5 at 11%, with 0:3 also at 11%. These are not predictions of exact events but averages across many versions of the match.

Podbrezová's attacking distribution shows a clear peak in the 31st to 45th minute, where 31% of their 35 goals fall. They also register 20% in the 46th to 60th minute and another 20% in the final 15 minutes. Their defensive record is different: 25% of the 32 goals they have conceded arrive in the 76th to 90th minute, and 19% come in both the 46th to 60th and 61st to 75th periods. This suggests they start matches strongly but can be vulnerable late on.

A draw suits Spišská Nová Ves in theory, and given how they have run matches in friendlies—camping in the final third when behind—that is the main threat to the prediction. Podbrezová's top scorer R. Sailer has 4 goals but sits one booking away from a ban, while Matej Juricka carries a recent red card. If either situation alters the visitors' approach, the model's expectation shifts. The data does not provide head-to-head history, league positions, or current team news for this specific fixture, so those factors remain outside the calculation.