Minnesota Lynx Women vs Indiana Fever Women: match prediction on 25 September 2026

The model expects Minnesota to outscore Indiana 92.5 to 88.2, a gap that reflects the Lynx's superior season record despite their recent struggles. Minnesota sit top after 43 matches with 32 wins, while Indiana occupy second place with 28 victories. The visitors have won four of their last five games, including a 96-77 triumph over the Lynx at home on 23 September, but the model still places its edge on the hosts.

Minnesota's recent form tells a different story. They have lost four of their last five matches, scoring 406 points while conceding 447. The defeats came against Indiana, New York, Atlanta and Golden State. Their only victory in that span was a 101-89 away win at Connecticut on 20 September, when Olivia Miles broke Caitlin Clark's rookie record with 21 points. That performance suggests individual quality remains, even if results have turned.

Indiana's momentum is undeniable. They have scored 500 points in their last five games while conceding 436, including 27 in the victory over Minnesota and 25 against Washington despite shooting 6 of 20. The squad's stature is notable, though it does not affect tonight's fixture.

The head-to-head record shows symmetry: six wins each in the last 12 meetings. Minnesota won 108-100 at home on 2 August and 95-90 in Indianapolis on 22 August 2025, with the Fever controlling the game from the opening quarter.

Indiana have consistently scored over 80 points this season. Their defensive vulnerabilities have shown in recent losses, particularly the 93-77 defeat to Washington. Both teams average over 20 assists per game, indicating reliance on ball movement rather than isolation plays.

This conclusion may not hold if Minnesota continue their downward trajectory. A repeat of that performance, combined with Minnesota's inability to contain Clark's scoring, would shift the outcome entirely.