Seattle Storm Women vs Las Vegas Aces Women: match prediction on 18 September 2026

Las Vegas win.

Third sits eighth; the model backs the visitors 86.7 to 82.7.

Seattle have lost four of their last five games, including defeats at home to Portland and Chicago. Their only victory in that span came 90-78 against Toronto Tempo on 27 August, but they have since dropped 74-90 to Los Angeles Sparks on 30 August. The visitors come off a 3-2 run. They also beat Toronto away and at home, plus a 101-78 victory against Connecticut Sun.

The numbers do not lie

Las Vegas sit on 27 wins from 40 matches while Seattle have mustered just eight. The head-to-head record is stark: the Aces won 101-91 here on 9 June, and 74-73 on 19 September last year. Seattle managed only one victory in six meetings during 2025, beating Las Vegas 86-83 at home on 17 September.

That margin of four points aligns with what we have seen in recent meetings. The Aces have scored 101, 102, 90 and 83 in their four wins here, while Seattle's victories came by just three and seven points respectively. The visitors have been the more consistent side, winning three of five compared to Seattle's one.

A tight finish suits neither side given the quality difference, but Seattle would need to find their shooting touch and limit turnovers. They have conceded 426 points in their last five matches while scoring 396. Las Vegas have been more balanced, netting 451 to 418 in their own five-game stretch. The visitors have shown they can score in bursts and defend adequately when required.

The Seattle angle

This prediction falls away if Seattle find a way to control the tempo and keep Las Vegas from reaching their peak output. The Aces have scored 101 and 102 in separate victories, so if Seattle contain them to under 80 points while exceeding their own 82.7 expectation, the result shifts. An early run of three-pointers from Seattle could also disrupt the visitors' rhythm and change the complexion of the game.