Junior — Santa Fe: match prediction

Santa Fe avoided defeat in Barranquilla on 29 August, since they have won seven of their thirteen meetings against Junior and are on an unbeaten run of five matches that has yielded nine points.

Junior have taken just two points from their last five games, losing three and drawing twice, and their goal difference has dropped after conceding 11 while scoring 7.

Santa Fe have kept three clean sheets on the spin, conceding just one goal in their last five fixtures while picking up two wins and three draws. They held River Plate to a 1:1 draw away in the Sudamericana on 27 August after matching them 0:0 at home on 20 August, and before that they beat Chico 2:0 and Union Magdalena 2:0 in domestic and cup competition respectively.

Head-to-head record

Santa Fe have won seven of the thirteen matches played, with six draws and no losses for Junior.

Junior are projected to score 1.4 goals and Santa Fe 1.0, with a 27% probability for a draw and 48% for both teams to score. The most likely scorelines are 1:1 at 13%, 1:0 at 12%, and 2:1 at 9%.

But if Junior find their finishing touch in the final quarter of an hour, where they have scored 35% of their goals this season, or if Santa Fe's defensive fragility in the same period—where they concede 45% of their goals—becomes decisive, the picture changes. A draw suits the visitors, and given how they run the clock down, that remains the main threat to a Santa Fe victory.