Shimshon Tel Aviv vs Holon Yermiyahu: match prediction on 17 September 2026

Shimshon Tel Aviv win (40%)

Shimshon Tel Aviv take on Holon Yermiyahu on 17 September 2026 with a record that favours them. The model expects Shimshon to edge 1.2 to 1.1 in expected goals, and the three most probable scorelines—1:1, 1:0, 0:1—cluster around a narrow home result.

Form on the pitch

Shimshon have collected 8 points from their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 6. They beat Ironi Beit Shemesh 2:0 at home on 3 September and drew 2:2 away at Hapoel Hadera on 9 September. Holon sit on 9 points from the same number of games, with 2 wins and 3 draws, and have kept 4 clean sheets in that run. Their 3:1 goal difference looks stronger on paper, but they have struggled to break down opposition—only 3 goals in 5 outings.

Where the goals fall

Shimshon's scoring pattern shows a dip in the middle of the second half. They have netted 33 per cent of their goals in the 31st to 45th minute and another 33 per cent after the 76th minute, with zero in the 61st to 75th. Holon's defence has been tight, but Shimshon tend to find space when the game opens up late. The hosts also concede most of their goals in the first 60 minutes—40 per cent in each of the 31–45 and 46–60 blocks—so an early lead could set the tone.

The visitor's problem

Holon Yermiyahu have not won away from home in their last 5 matches. They drew 1:1 at Maccabi Yavne on 20 February and have drawn three of their four home games in the same period. O. Elimelech carries a red card from 9 September 2026, but the database does not confirm whether that results in a suspension for this fixture.

The prediction holds as long as Shimshon maintain their recent habit of scoring in the final quarter and avoid conceding in the 61st to 75th minute, where they have not let one in. A draw suits the visitors—Holon have drawn 3 of their last 5—and if they sit deep and run the clock down, the model's 28 per cent draw probability becomes the real threat.