MPBL
Prediction for Bulacan Kuyas — San Juan Knights
67%
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Prediction for
Win: Struga
43%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Form last 5 matches
Head to head 17
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 5 Sep, 15:11Struga win, confidence 43%. Struga lead by four points and have won two of their last three. The model expects 1.3 goals for Struga and 1.1 for Sileks, with a 1:0 result priced at 12% and a 1:1 draw at 13%. This conclusion stops holding if Sileks capitalise on their late-game attacking threat, particularly in the final quarter of an hour where 29% of their goals arrive. Struga sit third with 10 points from five matches, recording three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their goal difference of 17 for and 4 against. Sileks occupy fifth place with 7 points from the same number of games, their record of two wins, one draw and two losses leaving them three points behind the hosts. The gap suggests Struga hold the initiative, though Sileks remain within striking distance. Twelve meetings have been played between these sides over recent years. Struga have won six, Sileks four, with two draws. Both sides are dangerous late on but leaky after the hour mark. The model places the draw at 27%, both teams to score at 48%, and three or more goals at 42%. The three most likely scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 0:1, each clustering around one goal per side.