Byåsen Women vs Larvik HK Women: match prediction on 16 September 2026

Larvik HK Women to win on Wednesday in the Norwegian Cup. The visitors have won all eight meetings in the record book, and their current run of five straight victories shows a side that is not just beating opponents but outscoring them by margins that suggest a class gap. Byåsen have won four of their last five, but the one defeat came away to Storhamar, and the overall goal difference tells a different story.

The model projects 26 goals for Byåsen and 29.5 for Larvik. Those figures come from past scoring and conceding patterns, not from today's conditions. That is not a timetable for the match, just an average across many simulated versions.

Byåsen's last five results show a team that can score heavily. They beat Gjerpen 22-16 away, Utleira 27-17 at home, Levanger HK 35-26 away, and Fjellhammer 29-23 away. The loss came against Storhamar 21-28 on 8 September. They have scored 134 goals and conceded 110 in that span.

Larvik have been more consistent. Five wins from five, with no draws. They beat Utleira 25-21 at home, Folló HK 40-24 away, Fana 31-23 at home, Glassverket 55-13 away, and Sola 31-29 at home. The goal tally is 182 for and 110 against. The 55-13 victory in the NM Cup shows they can pull away quickly when the gap opens.

The head-to-head record is clear. Eight matches, eight wins for Larvik. The most recent was 32-29 at Larvik on 11 February 2026. Before that, Byåsen lost 25-31 twice at home in 2025, and lost 21-38 at home in March 2024.

Larvik’s attack has been more prolific, and their defence has held up better in high-scoring games. The model's expectation of 29.5 goals for Larvik suggests they will find the net consistently.

A draw suits neither side, but if Byåsen were to park the bus and slow the tempo, the match could slip into extra time. That is the main threat to the conclusion. A draw would change everything, and given how Larvik run matches, that is the only scenario that breaks the prediction.

The confidence in this outcome is 58%. That comes from the combination of the head-to-head record and Larvik's current form. Byåsen have won four of five, but the quality of opposition matters.

No team news or league standings are available. The match is in the NM Cup, but the round is unclear. What is clear is that Larvik have dominated this fixture historically and are in better form now. The model expects Larvik to score more, and the head-to-head supports that expectation.

A draw would require Byåsen to defend deep and hope for a late goal. Larvik have not lost in five matches, and they have not lost to Byåsen in eight. The visitors have the momentum, and the model expects them to score more goals. If Byåsen can keep it tight and find a counter-attack, the match could go either way, but the data points to Larvik.