Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Ruch Kalisz Women vs MKS Lublin Women: match prediction on 16 September 2026
Ruch Kalisz Women
MKS Lublin Women
Prediction for
Win: MKS Lublin Women
64%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
36%
1
64%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 14 Sep, 17:13- Рух Калиш (жен.) — 7. place, 3 points after 2 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- МКС Люблин (жен.) — 1. place, 6 points after 2 games (2 wins, 0 losses)
- Рух Калиш (жен.), last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- МКС Люблин (жен.), last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Ruch Kalisz Women
LLLWL
1 win · 4 losses
MKS Lublin Women
WLWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 14 Sep, 17:13MKS Lublin Women are the clear favourites to win this Superliga Women encounter, and the model's expected goals figure of 30.0 for the visitors against 24.9 for the hosts points to a comfortable margin. The conclusion rests on MKS Lublin Women maintaining their unbeaten start and Ruch Kalisz Women failing to turn their recent defensive frailties around.
Unbeaten start
Their last five games show four victories and one defeat, with 158 goals scored and 121 conceded across that span. The most recent outing was a 31:20 home win over Galychanka Lviv Women on 11 September.
Ruch Kalisz Women struggling
Ruch Kalisz Women occupy 7th place with 3 points from three matches. Their last five matches tell a different story: 1 win and 4 defeats, yielding 3 points and a goal difference of 122 scored to 161 conceded. They pulled off a 26:25 away win against Sosnica Gliwice Women on 12 September, but that was followed by losses at home to Kobierzyce Women (21:31), Start Elbląg Women (26:34 in the Polish Cup), and away to Zagłębie Women (25:39). Their most recent home defeat came against Gniezno Women on 31 January, 24:32.
Model projection
Lublin are projected to net 30, Kalisz 24.9. A draw is unlikely, and the model assigns 0% to both teams scoring and to matches producing 3 or more goals. The gap between the two expected goal totals indicates the visitors should control the tempo and maintain their offensive output.
Conditions that would break the conclusion
This prediction would not hold if MKS Lublin Women fail to start strongly or if Ruch Kalisz Women find an unexpected response after their recent poor run. A draw suits neither side given the model's 0% probability, but if the home side manages to contain the visitors' attack and exploit any defensive lapses, the margin could narrow significantly. The conclusion also depends on MKS Lublin Women maintaining their current intensity over the full match.
Confidence
65%
The 65% rating tracks Lublin's table lead and recent form. Lublin lead by three points. Their five-game goal difference (+37) dwarfs Kalisz's (-39).