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57%
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Salavat Ufa vs Magnitogorsk: match prediction on 23 September 2026
Salavat Ufa
Magnitogorsk
Prediction for
Win: Magnitogorsk
48%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
36%
1
17%
X
48%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 15:03- Салават Юлаев — 1. place, 0 points after 6 games (4 wins, 2 losses)
- Магнитогорск — 1. place, 0 points after 7 games (5 wins, 2 losses)
- Салават Юлаев, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Магнитогорск, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 21 games, Салават Юлаев — 8, Магнитогорск — 13
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Salavat Ufa
LLWWL
2 wins · 3 losses
Magnitogorsk
LLWWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 24
10Salavat Ufa
0Draw
14Magnitogorsk
- 29 AugMagnitogorsk — Salavat Ufa3:2
- 16 Oct 2025Magnitogorsk — Salavat Ufa6:4
- 8 Sep 2025Magnitogorsk — Salavat Ufa2:3
- 26 Aug 2025Magnitogorsk — Salavat Ufa2:5
- 3 Feb 2025Salavat Ufa — Magnitogorsk6:4
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 21 Sep, 15:03Magnitogorsk win (48% confidence). The visitors carry a stronger head-to-head record and have covered more ground this season, but the conclusion falls away if Yakovlew returns to the lineup or if Salavat Ufa capitalise on their home advantage.
The two sides meet with remarkably similar recent form. Salavat Ufa have won three and lost two of their last five matches, while Magnitogorsk have mirrored that pattern exactly. Both teams have scored 16-18 goals and conceded 10-13 across that span, suggesting an open game on Saturday.
Head-to-head advantage
Magnitogorsk have dominated this pairing over the years. Of 21 meetings, they have won 13 while Salavat Ufa have claimed eight. The most recent KHL fixture saw Magnitogorsk win 6-4 at home in October 2025, and they also secured a 3-2 victory in a club friendly last month. Salavat Ufa have only won twice in the last six encounters, including one at home in February 2025.
Magnitogorsk sit top after seven matches with five wins, while Salavat Ufa occupy second place after six games with four victories. The extra match played gives Magnitogorsk a marginal edge in momentum, though Magnitogorsk lead 10 to 8.
Squad changes
Magnitogorsk have been without forward Roman Kanzerow, who transferred to the Chicago Blackhawks on 22 September. Captain Yegor Yakovlew was suspended for four matches following a dispute with coach Andrei Razin on 19 September, but his current availability for this fixture is not confirmed. Salavat Ufa lost forward Kuznetsov on 9 September, with general director Bashirov citing "season-long doubts about his willingness to play" as the reason for the departure.
Odds point to 2:3. The most likely result is 2:3 to Magnitogorsk at 5% probability, followed by a 2:2 draw and a 3:3 draw, each also at 5%. The 17% chance of a draw reflects the evenness of recent form, but the 90% probability that both teams score points to the attacking nature of both sides this season.
A return for the captain would shift the balance considerably, and Salavat Ufa's home record—particularly their 3-1 victory over Spartak Moscow last weekend—suggests they are capable of upsetting the visitors.