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Sports predictions

A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.

Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models

Prediction accuracy

57%

711 / 1256

711hit
545missed
297Pending
1256checked predictions

Awaiting result

Liga Pro Pending
LDU Quito Mushuc Runa

Prediction for LDU Quito — Mushuc Runa

Win: LDU Quito

60%probability
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MLS Next Pro Pending
Fort Lauderdale CF New York City II

Prediction for Fort Lauderdale CF — New York City II

Win: New York City II

54%probability
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Caribbean Premier League Pending
St Kitts and Nevis Patriots Barbados Tridents

Prediction for St Kitts and Nevis Patriots — Barbados Tridents

Win: Barbados Tridents

50%probability
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Liga Pro Pending
Delfín SC Tecnico Universitario

Prediction for Delfín SC — Tecnico Universitario

Win: Delfín SC

38%probability
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Division Profesional - Clausura Pending
2 de Mayo Sportivo Luqueño

Prediction for 2 de Mayo — Sportivo Luqueño

Win: 2 de Mayo

45%probability
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Primera División Pending
Atletico Grau FBC Melgar

Prediction for Atletico Grau — FBC Melgar

Win: Atletico Grau

37%probability
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Primera B Pending
Envigado Union Magdalena

Prediction for Envigado — Union Magdalena

Win: Envigado

46%probability
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Division Profesional - Clausura Pending
Rubio Ñu Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Prediction for Rubio Ñu — Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Win: Rubio Ñu

51%probability
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Cupa României Pending
Universitatea Cluj Petrolul Ploiești

Prediction for Universitatea Cluj — Petrolul Ploiești

Win: Universitatea Cluj

60%probability
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

How a forecast is made

First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.

What data goes in

Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.

What the probability means

Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.

Limits of a forecast

The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.