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Sports predictions

A suggested outcome with a probability and the reasoning behind it. The calculation rests on attacking and defensive strength adjusted for opponents, recent form, head-to-head history and, where available, the bookmakers' line. A forecast is an estimate, not a promise.

Analytical forecasts on sports events based on statistical models

Prediction accuracy

55%

752 / 1368

752hit
616missed
308Pending
1368checked predictions

Awaiting result

Cupa României Pending
FC Botosani Corvinul Hunedoara

Prediction for FC Botosani — Corvinul Hunedoara

Win: FC Botosani

56%probability
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Cup Pending
Orenburg Rubin

Prediction for Orenburg — Rubin

Win: Rubin

37%probability
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Premier Soccer League Pending
Scotland Mabvuku Platinum FC

Prediction for Scotland Mabvuku — Platinum FC

Win: Scotland Mabvuku

59%probability
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1st Division Pending
Cape Town City Leicesterfield

Prediction for Cape Town City — Leicesterfield

Win: Cape Town City

66%probability
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First League Pending
Hayq Ararat II

Prediction for Hayq — Ararat II

Win: Hayq

70%probability
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First League Pending
Lernayin Artsakh FC Banants II

Prediction for Lernayin Artsakh FC — Banants II

Win: Banants II

54%probability
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J1 League Pending
Avispa Fukuoka Urawa

Prediction for Avispa Fukuoka — Urawa

Win: Urawa

37%probability
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J1 League Pending
JEF United Chiba Fagiano Okayama

Prediction for JEF United Chiba — Fagiano Okayama

Win: Fagiano Okayama

45%probability
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J1 League Pending
Shimizu S-Pulse FC Tokyo

Prediction for Shimizu S-Pulse — FC Tokyo

Win: FC Tokyo

42%probability
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WK-League Pending
Seoul FC Incheon Red Angels

Prediction for Seoul FC — Incheon Red Angels

Win: Seoul FC

37%probability
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WK-League Pending
Hwacheon KSPO Suwon FC Women

Prediction for Hwacheon KSPO — Suwon FC Women

Win: Hwacheon KSPO

39%probability
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J1 League Pending
V-Varen Nagasaki Gamba Osaka

Prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki — Gamba Osaka

Win: Gamba Osaka

45%probability
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Checked forecasts

FKF Premier League Pending
AFC Leopards Bandari

Prediction for AFC Leopards — Bandari

Win: AFC Leopards

43%probability
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FKF Premier League Pending
Posta Rangers FC Shabana

Prediction for Posta Rangers FC — Shabana

Win: Shabana

39%probability
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+

How a forecast is made

First the attacking and defensive strength of each side is worked out from matches played, adjusted for the opposition faced: goals against a bottom club and against a leader are not worth the same. Expected goals follow from those figures, and the outcome probabilities from them.

What data goes in

Match results from the past two years, weighted so that a recent game counts for more than one from last season. League position, head-to-head history and, in football, the average bookmakers' line. Injuries and suspensions are gathered separately and appear in the write-up.

What the probability means

Sixty per cent means that, were the match played many times over, the outcome would come up in roughly six cases out of ten. In four it would not — and that is not an error in the calculation but the nature of an estimate.

Limits of a forecast

The calculation knows nothing that is not in the data: a coach dismissed on the eve, the weather, a side rested before a European tie. For clubs with two or three matches behind them there is not enough to go on at all, and no forecast is made.