Andebol 1
Porto
ABC Braga
Prediction for Porto — ABC Braga
72%
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Cerezo Osaka vs Kashiwa Reysol: match prediction on 2 September 2026
Cerezo Osaka
Kashiwa Reysol
Prediction for
Win: Kashiwa Reysol
39%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
30%
1
27%
X
43%
2
Average bookmaker line (45)
3.10
1
3.44
X
2.16
2
Odds range
2.05 — 2.45
for outcome 2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 31 Aug, 11:07- Серезо Осака — 10. place, 6 points after 4 games (2 wins, 2 losses)
- Касива Рейсол — 1. place, 12 points after 4 games (4 wins, 0 losses)
- Серезо Осака, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Касива Рейсол, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 7 games, Серезо Осака — 1, 5 draws, Касива Рейсол — 1
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Cerezo Osaka
WWLWD
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Kashiwa Reysol
WWLLW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 12
2Cerezo Osaka
6Draw
4Kashiwa Reysol
- 20 Sep 2025Cerezo Osaka — Kashiwa Reysol1:1
- 26 Feb 2025Kashiwa Reysol — Cerezo Osaka2:1
- 28 Sep 2024Cerezo Osaka — Kashiwa Reysol0:0
- 3 Apr 2024Kashiwa Reysol — Cerezo Osaka1:1
- 12 Aug 2023Kashiwa Reysol — Cerezo Osaka1:1
Bookmaker market
45
bookmakers counted
2.16
Average bookmaker line
2.05 — 2.45
Odds range
More predictions
All match predictions
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 31 Aug, 11:07Kashiwa Reysol arrive in first place with four wins from four league matches. Expected goals stand at 1.4 for each side, and the most probable scoreline is 1:1 at 12%. The visitors have not lost a game this season, yet the history between them tells a different story.
Five wins in a row puts Kashiwa Reysol at the summit of the J1 League table with 12 points from 4 matches. They have scored 12 goals and conceded 5 across those fixtures, including a 4:2 victory over V-Varen Nagasaki. Cerezo Osaka sit 10th with 6 points from 4 matches — 2 wins and 2 losses. Their recent form shows 3 victories and 2 defeats in 5 games, with a 0:3 loss away to Avispa Fukuoka among the results.
The head-to-head record over the last seven meetings is balanced. Cerezo Osaka have won one match, Kashiwa Reysol one, and five ended in draws. The most recent encounter on 20 September 2025 finished 1:1 at Osaka, while the previous five meetings produced three draws and two victories split between the sides.
Timing data shows when each team scores and concedes. Cerezo Osaka score 51% of their goals between the 76th and 90th minute and concede 52% in the same period. Kashiwa Reysol show a different pattern — 26% of their goals come in the 31-45 minute window, while they concede 29% between the 46th and 60th minute. Both sides have similar shot accuracy: Cerezo average 4.7 shots on target per match, Kashiwa 4.89.
The model predicts a 25% chance of a draw and both-teams-to-score at 56%. Three or more goals are expected in 53% of simulated matches. Beyond the 1:1 prediction, the next most likely outcomes are 0:1 and 1:2, each at 9%. The equal expected goals figure suggests neither side has a structural advantage, and the historical tendency toward draws reinforces that reading.
A draw is the baseline outcome. If Cerezo Osaka fail to score after the 75th minute — when they have scored 51% of their goals — or if Kashiwa Reysol concede in the 46-60 minute period — when they have conceded 29% — the balance could shift.