Griquas vs Lions: match prediction on 6 September 2026

Griquas to win, 85%. Model projects 34–12.

Griquas have won every one of their last five matches, scoring 196 points while conceding just 92. They beat Boland 48:17 away on 30 August, Pumas 38:14 away on 21 August, Sharks 55:21 at home on 14 August, Lions 31:19 at home on 8 August, and Cheetahs 24:21 at home on 31 July. Five victories, fifteen points, zero draws, zero defeats. Griquas average 39 points a game.

Lions have managed one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five outings, scoring 141 and conceding 144. They beat Stormers Xxiii 36:12 at home on 28 August in a friendly, drew 22:22 with Sharks away on 21 August, lost 29:38 to Boland at home on 14 August, and lost 19:31 to Griquas away on 8 August.

The most recent encounter on 8 August 2025 ended 31:19 to the hosts. Before that, Griquas won 27:25 away on 20 September 2024 and 25:21 at home on 5 May 2023. The pattern is clear: when Griquas are at home, they dominate.

The model expects a projected score of 70–8. The draw probability is 0%, both teams to score a try is 0%, and three or more tries for either side is 0%. The hosts have been prolific—196 in five games—while the visitors have conceded more than they have scored in their recent run. The gap in quality is visible in the numbers.

This conclusion stops holding if Lions produce a performance that defies their recent form, particularly if they find a way to contain Griquas' attack. The model knows nothing of injuries or suspensions, and no team news has been reported for either side. If a key player is suddenly unavailable, the expected goals shift. A draw suits the visitors, and given how they have run matches lately, that remains the main threat.