Cubs vs Marlins: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Cubs win expected, with the model placing their confidence at 65%.

Cubs are 2-3 at home this month, but their 9:1 demolition of the Reds shows their ceiling.

Marlins have also collected six points from five matches, though with a worse goal difference. They have won two and lost three, with the defeats coming against Padres on 19 and 20 September and against Cubs on 23 September. Their two victories came at Cubs on 22 September (8:2) and at Cubs on 23 September (3:2).

The 2:3 result on 23 September and the 2:8 result on 22 September both went to the visitors. Earlier in September, Marlins won 10:3 at home on 6 September before losing two straight at home to Cubs on 4 and 5 September.

Cubs' Alex Bregman was taken to hospital after a foul ball struck his face during the 9:1 win over Reds on 20 September. Whether he travels for this match remains uncertain, and the model's expectation of 6.3 goals for the home side appears to factor in that absence.

The model assigns 0% probability to a draw, 0% to both teams scoring, and 0% to three or more goals being scored in total.

Bregman’s return would boost the Cubs’ expected goals and tighten the matchup.