Mets — Astros: match prediction

They have won three of their last five games while the Mets have managed just one victory, and the Astros took the head-to-head yesterday with a 3:1 scoreline. The model expects 4.9 runs for the Mets and 3.6 for the visitors, which points to a high-scoring affair.

The Mets have been in freefall. In their last five matches they have won only once and lost four times, scoring 8 runs while conceding 23. Three of those defeats came against the Brewers, including a 2:8 and a 1:8 loss at home. The only bright spot was a 3:2 win over Milwaukee on 25 August, but since then the run differential has been brutal. They face the Astros again tonight after losing yesterday's game 1:3.

The Astros have shown more resilience. Their last five results read 3 wins and 2 losses, with 26 runs scored and 25 conceded. They beat the Yankees 5:1 on 27 August before dropping 9:7 to the same side two days later. The 3:1 victory over the Mets yesterday came on the road, which makes tonight's home advantage for New York less decisive than it might otherwise be.

The model's run expectations are high for both sides. A Mets total of 4.9 runs suggests the visitors' pitching is expected to struggle, while 3.6 for Houston reflects a more balanced attack. The draw probability sits at 0 per cent and the chance of both teams scoring is also 0 per cent, which means the model sees a decisive result. Three or more runs for either side is rated at 0 per cent, which means neither side scores three or more.

The prediction is an Astros win if the Mets' pitching finds a second wind. They have conceded 23 runs in five games, but if their starters can limit Houston's power hitters, the visitors' advantage evaporates. A draw would suit the Mets, who need to avoid another heavy defeat, but the model gives that outcome no chance.