Mets — Astros: match prediction

The Astros are favored to win at Citi Field on Saturday. They took the only meeting between these sides at this ground 3:1 on August 28. The Mets have lost four of five, conceding 23 runs while scoring just 8. The Astros have won three of their last five, putting up 26 runs in the process.

At Citi Field, the Mets dropped 1:3, 2:8 and 1:8 in three consecutive home games before scraping a 3:2 victory. Their away form was no better — a 1:2 loss to the White Sox on the road. Three defeats in a row preceded the loss to Houston, then another loss in the very next match. Their run differential was -15 over five games.

The Astros showed more resilience on their travels. They beat the Yankees 5:1 and 9:7 in consecutive away matches, though they also suffered a 3:9 defeat. Their only home game was a 6:7 loss to the Athletics. They produced 26 runs in five matches.

The model expects the Mets to score 4.9 runs and the Astros 3.6. The Mets managed just 8 runs in five games while the Astros put up 26.

A draw suits neither side, and the model gives the probability at 0%. Both teams to score is also listed at 0%. The main risk is that the Mets finally find their rhythm — they have lost four straight at home, but a side that low often bounces back. If they do, the Astros' away form becomes less relevant.

Astros win — confidence 65%