Pirates vs Cardinals: match prediction on 23 September 2026

# Pirates vs Cardinals: Pirates Favored After Dominant Home Run

Pirates win — 70% confidence. The Pirates have won four of their last five matches while the Cardinals have managed just one victory in the same period. The Pirates' recent home form is particularly strong, with five straight wins at their stadium, scoring 27 runs and conceding only 17. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have lost four of their last five outings, conceding 28 runs while scoring 16. The Pirates come into this fixture with momentum on their side and a clear advantage in recent results.

Pirates' Home Fortress

The Pirates have been unstoppable at home recently. All five of their last matches came at their own ground, and they won every single one. The scores tell the story: 7-4 against the Brewers, 8-5 against the Royals, 6-5 against the Royals again, 4-3 against the Royals once more, and 2-0 against the Cardinals. They're averaging more than five runs per game at home, with the Pirates hitting well. The home streak stands at five.

Cardinals' Away Woes

The Cardinals have struggled badly on the road. Their only win in five games came against the Nationals at home, 5-3. Since then they've lost four consecutive matches, including a heavy 1-9 defeat to the Nationals and a 5-8 loss to the same opponents. Their away record is particularly poor, with just one victory in five games across all venues. They've conceded 28 runs in that period, averaging more than five per match.

Recent Head-to-Head

The two sides have split four meetings over the past few weeks. The Pirates won 5-4 and 6-2 at Cardinals' ground, while the Cardinals took two games by 4-1 scorelines. But the most recent encounter on September 22 saw the Pirates win 2-0 at their own stadium. That result fits the pattern of the Pirates dominating at home while the Cardinals struggle to contain them when playing away from their venue.

Model Expectations

The statistical model expects the Pirates to score 4.9 runs and the Cardinals 3.9. However, the model gives a 0% probability of a draw, 0% chance of both teams to score, and 0% likelihood of three or more runs in the match. The Pirates are expected to control the game and keep a shutout while scoring multiple times.