Rangers vs Mets: match prediction on 24 September 2026

The visitors took the first leg 6:3 on 23 September and carry that momentum into tonight's fixture, while the hosts have lost three of their last five home games and scored 21 goals in five matches — a rate that suggests they can fire but also leave gaps. The model puts the Mets ahead on expected goals, 4.9 to 4.7.

Recent form

Rangers have taken six points from five matches, winning twice and losing three times, with runs going 21:20 for them. The losses came against the Mets, the Blue Jays, and the Red Sox — all at home. The two victories were 6:2 and 7:1 over the Blue Jays on 19 September, but those came after a 2:7 defeat to the same side on 20 September, Rangers cannot string wins together.

The Mets have collected nine points from five games, winning three and losing two, with a run record of 24:19. Their losses were 2:7 and 0:3 to the Phillies at home, while the wins included a 10:3 demolition of the same side on 19 September and the 6:3 away victory at Rangers yesterday.

Head-to-head

The only meeting this season came on 23 September, when the Rangers hosted the Mets and lost 3:6, Mets hold the season series.

Expected goals

Conditions

This conclusion stops holding if the Rangers find a way to contain the Mets' attack, which has been vulnerable at home — they lost 2:7 and 0:3 to the Phillies in their last five. Walk prevention would suit the visitors given their tendency to manage games, but Rangers must cut the walks.