Japan beat China 97-78 in the Asian Games on 18 September, both sides entering the match sitting top of the table with three wins each. The hosts took control early and never really looked back, finishing with a margin that felt comfortable rather than nervously held. To be fair, neither team had much room for error after three rounds, and this one decided where the group would stand.
Japan's recent form had been mixed — they lost 100-83 to South Korea on 13 September but bounced back with wins over Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. China came in with a string of comfortably larger victories, beating Philippines 105-61 and Bahrain 105-59 in their last two outings. And here's the thing, the mismatch in those margins showed up on the scoreboard without much drama.
We'd called for Japan at 61 per cent confidence before the game, and that prediction came good. Not because the hosts were overwhelming favourites, but because China's heavy wins against smaller opponents had masked some vulnerability. Japan's defence tightened things up in the second quarter and that shift turned the match on.
By then the visitors had already lost their rhythm. China's attack, which had looked sharp against weaker opposition, grew passive and began to give up the ball and hit them on the break. The hosts stretched the back line and found themselves cutting through before the visitors could set their shape.
Both teams remain level on three wins, but the goal difference now weighs heavily in favour of Japan. If either side falters in the final round, this margin could prove decisive for top spot. The table goes out of the window in these games, but 19 points is a cushion that doesn't disappear easily.