Cedevita Olimpija vs Hapoel Jerusalem: match prediction on 6 October 2026

Hapoel Jerusalem to win in Ljubljana, 87-83. The prediction shows 0% probability of a draw, but the edge stops holding if Cedevita's defense tightens enough to limit their shooting efficiency.

Hapoel have won four of their last five, losing only to Maccabi Tel Aviv away from home. Cedevita sit at three wins and two defeats, including two losses at home this season. The visitors bring better momentum into this fixture.

Hapoel's recent results show 110-77 at Maccabi Ashdod and 94-73 over Rostock Seawolves at home. Their sole defeat came 88-71 away at Maccabi Tel Aviv in the League Cup.

Cedevita's last five produced 91-74 against Krka at home and 87-71 away at Krka. Two of their three wins came against Slovenian opposition.

Cedevita won 99-84 at Jerusalem in October 2025 and 74-70 there in January 2025. Hapoel responded with 84-81 at Ljubljana in December 2025 and 94-83 at home in October 2024. Each side has taken two victories.

Hapoel's point guard Jared Harper is injured. Owner Matan Adelson confirmed the club is searching for a replacement but warned a comparison with Harper is not possible. Cedevita signed Latvian guard Rihards Lomazs, 30, from BC Neptūnas Kaunas on 23 September. He averaged 18.6 points and 4.1 assists in EuroCup with his previous club.

The model projects Hapoel to score 87.2 points and Cedevita 83.2. Hapoel's last ten matches show 18.1 assists and 7.2 steals compared to Cedevita's 14 assists and 4 steals across two games. Hapoel also average 32.8 rebounds to Cedevita's 31.

Hapoel's field goal percentage stands at 45.1% over ten matches. Cedevita's last two games show 51.2% from the field. Hapoel take more free throws at 23.5 attempts per game versus Cedevita's 18.

The visitors have shown they can handle pressure in away fixtures. Their 110-77 victory at Maccabi Ashdod demonstrates offensive firepower. Cedevita's home losses to Krka and Burgos suggest vulnerability against organised opposition.

Hapoel's EuroCup license bid has reached the next phase, adding motivation beyond this fixture. Cedevita's domestic form has been inconsistent, with two defeats in their last three home games across all competitions.

Confidence in this outcome would be low if Cedevita's three-point shooting improves significantly. They hit 40% of their attempts in their last two games compared to Hapoel's 28.2%. A hot shooting night could overturn expectations.

The figures are computed from points scored and conceded. If Cedevita's new guard makes an immediate impact, the estimate shifts in their favour.

Hapoel's turnover rate of 10.8 per game is higher than Cedevita's 7.5. If Cedevita capitalise on those mistakes, they can close the gap.

The prediction holds only if Hapoel maintain their shooting efficiency and limit turnovers. If Cedevita's defense forces more mistakes and their own shooting improves, the visitors' advantage disappears.

Basketball rarely produces ties in regulation, so this figure reflects the likelihood of extra time rather than a true draw. Hapoel's offensive consistency gives them the edge.

There is no reason to doubt the assessment unless Cedevita's home advantage proves decisive. Their two home losses this season suggest the court does not guarantee results.