Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans: match prediction on 15 October 2026

Dallas Mavericks to win. The Mavericks have played better basketball of late, closing their five-game stretch with four victories against one defeat, while the Pelicans managed just two wins from five. The model puts Dallas ahead on points expected, and the visitors have shown they can match up physically when they need to.

The Mavericks have found a rhythm since their mid-September roster shuffle. Kyrie Irving committed to staying with the club, and Dusty May has pushed for a faster style of play. That shows in the numbers: they beat Houston 132-115 on the road on 11 October before dropping a closer game at home to the same side. The Summer League results earlier in the year suggest the young core still has energy, and the recent NBA games confirm they can score in bunches when the pace quickens.

New Orleans have struggled to string wins together. They lost to Miami 118-128 on 8 October after beating Oklahoma City 116-110 the day before. Jordan Hawkins has been traded to Memphis, which removes a scoring option from their rotation.

These sides have met 16 times in recent years with eight wins apiece. The last four meetings show a split: Dallas won at home 118-115 and 111-103, while New Orleans took two at 129-111 and 119-113. The most recent encounter on 17 March went to the Pelicans by 18 points, but that was on their floor.

The model expects Dallas to score 119.2 points and New Orleans 115.7. That margin of 3.5 points reflects the difference in offensive efficiency the Mavericks have shown recently. They've shot 42.5 per cent from the field compared to the Pelicans' 42.38, and their three-point percentage sits at 40.5 against 37.5. The turnover numbers are similar — 13.0 for Dallas, 14.5 for New Orleans — so the edge comes from shooting.

This prediction stops holding if the Pelicans control the tempo and slow the game down. A defensive battle where both sides shoot below 40 per cent from the field would remove the Mavericks' advantage. The model assumes an average pace, and if New Orleans decides to grind it out rather than trade baskets, the expected margin shrinks considerably.

The difference between these sides is small enough that a single bad shooting night for Dallas would flip the result.