Hungary Women vs Japan Women: match prediction on 8 September 2026

Hungary to win. The model puts them at 77.2 to 69.3 and the confidence sits at 58%. They have beaten Japan twice already — 77-65 in March and 81-75 in February — and their last five matches show four victories against just one defeat. Japan, by contrast, have won only once in their last five outings and lost four.

Hungary's run since March has been strong. They beat Turkey 89-74 away, then Germany 68-62 away in a friendly. At home they lost heavily to France 53-99 but followed that with two World Cup wins — 71-67 away at Nigeria and 82-73 at home against South Korea. They have scored 363 points in those five games and conceded 375. The form is uneven but the wins outweigh the losses.

Japan's record reads differently. They beat Mali 102-97 at home but lost four other matches — 85-89 and 77-78 away at Belgium, 58-74 away at Germany, and 59-79 at home against Spain. They have scored 381 points and conceded 417 in the same period.

The model projects a Hungary victory at 77.2 to 69.3. That conclusion stops holding if Japan find a way to control the tempo and limit Hungary's scoring opportunities — something they have not managed in recent matches, but basketball is not a straight line. The draw probability sits at 0% and both sides to hit the over at 0%.