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Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Indiana Fever Women vs Las Vegas Aces Women: match prediction on 29 September 2026
Indiana Fever Women
Las Vegas Aces Women
Prediction for
Win: Indiana Fever Women
54%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
54%
1
46%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Sep, 01:18- Индиана Фивер (жен.) — 3. place, 0 points after 44 games (28 wins, 16 losses)
- Лас-Вегас Эйс — 3. place, 0 points after 44 games (31 wins, 13 losses)
- Индиана Фивер (жен.), last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Лас-Вегас Эйс, last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 18 games, Индиана Фивер (жен.) — 6, Лас-Вегас Эйс — 12
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Indiana Fever Women
LWLLW
2 wins · 3 losses
Las Vegas Aces Women
WWWWL
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 26
6Indiana Fever Women
0Draw
20Las Vegas Aces Women
- 27 SepLas Vegas Aces Women — Indiana Fever Women102:85
- 7 AugIndiana Fever Women — Las Vegas Aces Women84:86
- 13 JulLas Vegas Aces Women — Indiana Fever Women75:109
- 6 JulLas Vegas Aces Women — Indiana Fever Women68:84
- 1 Oct 2025Las Vegas Aces Women — Indiana Fever Women107:98
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Sep, 01:18Las Vegas Aces Women to win
Confidence: 65%
The model's expectation of 92.6 for Indiana against 90.5 for Las Vegas runs counter to what the last month has shown. Las Vegas have not lost in five games—114:77 at Seattle, 98:77 at home against Seattle, 89:79 against Los Angeles, 100:82 away at Phoenix, and 102:85 over Indiana on 27 September. Indiana, by contrast, have won two and lost three in the same period, including a 102:85 defeat at Las Vegas two days ago and a 66:86 loss at Minnesota.
Both sides sit at 3rd after 44 matches—Indiana with 28 wins and 16 losses, Las Vegas with 31 wins and 13. The gap between them is narrow on paper, but form has pulled Las Vegas clear. They have beaten Indiana in four of the last six meetings, including both encounters this season. The most recent was 102:85 at home.
Indiana's recent results show inconsistency rather than decline. They beat Toronto 103:85 away and Minnesota 96:77 at home, but lost to Washington 77:93 at home and Minnesota 66:86 away. The pattern suggests they can produce but cannot sustain. Las Vegas have not dropped a point in five games.
The model gives Indiana a slight edge in expected points, but it does not account for momentum or the psychological weight of a 17-point defeat two days before this fixture. Indiana will need to respond quickly or risk another heavy loss. Las Vegas have nothing to prove and everything to gain by extending their perfect run.
This conclusion stops holding if Indiana can impose their pace early and limit Las Vegas's transition opportunities. A slow start from the Aces, or a hot shooting night from Indiana's perimeter players, would shift the balance. The model's expectation of 92.6 for Indiana assumes they can match Las Vegas's output, but it does not factor in the visitors' current defensive intensity.
The last meeting was played at Las Vegas. This one is at Indiana. Home advantage matters, but so does confidence. Las Vegas carry both from their recent form. Indiana must overcome a 17-point deficit in their minds as well as on the scoreboard.
Conditions that would break this prediction: - Indiana wins the first quarter by 10+ points - Las Vegas miss key rotation players through injury - The game stays within 5 points through three quarters, forcing a close finish where momentum can swing either way