Italy Women vs China Women: match prediction on 7 September 2026

Italy to win with 94% confidence. The model projects 113.9 points for the hosts against 43.4 for the visitors, a gap that reflects not just form but a structural mismatch in this meeting. Italy have won three of their last five matches, China one.

They beat Czech Republic 63-54 in the World Cup and France 75-72 in a friendly before losing narrowly to Belgium 62-60 and then USA 55-52 at home. Their last defeat came against Belgium, but they have not lost to China since the 2023 friendly in Beijing. The hosts average 41 rebounds and 11 assists per game from their limited fixture list, with 14 three-point attempts yielding 2 makes. Their defence allows 57 field goal attempts against, forcing 18 turnovers.

China's five matches produced just one victory. They beat Czech Republic 74-70 at home before falling to USA 94-61 away, Spain 72-71 in a friendly, Italy 88-76 in a friendly, and Nigeria 88-77 at home. Their lone win came against Czech Republic, but they have not beaten Italy since that 2023 match. China average 37 rebounds and 17 assists per game, with 19 three-point attempts producing 5 makes. Their defence allows 62 field goal attempts against, forcing 20 turnovers.

Italy won 88-76 in a friendly on 21 August 2026. China had earlier won 63-62 in a friendly on 24 May 2023 in Beijing. Those two results give each side one victory, but the margins tell a different story. Italy's 12-point win in August came after China had already lost three of four matches heading into that fixture. The 2023 result was decided by a single point in what was a tight contest.

The model's expectations show Italy scoring 113.9 points on average, China 43.4. The model rules out a draw and a margin under four points.

The prediction would not hold if China's shooting efficiency improved significantly beyond their recent 26% three-point conversion rate, or if Italy's defence conceded more than 57 field goals. A draw suits neither side given the model's 0% probability, but a closer result would require China to outperform their recent form substantially. The visitors have not beaten Italy since 2023 and have lost four of their last five matches. Italy's 94% confidence rests on the model's assessment that China cannot bridge this gap with their current offensive output and defensive vulnerabilities.