Japan Women vs Thailand Women: match preview on 24 September 2026

We rate Japan at 65% confidence. The gap between the sides shows in their recent results: Japan have won 3 of their last 5 matches while Thailand have lost 3 of theirs, and the scoring margins tell a starker story. Japan's 413 points in 6 matches average 68.8 per game; Thailand's 316 in 5 matches average 63.2. Japan don’t just win; they dismantle weaker sides.

Japan's last three games have all been victories, two by wide margins. They beat Hong Kong 114-37 at home, then Kazakhstan 88-23 away, and most recently Philippines 89-67 on home court. The Hong Kong match alone produced a 77-point margin. Their defensive numbers support this: they concede 48.3 points per match on average, and their 8.5 steals per game suggest they are active in disrupting opponents. The losses came against Hungary and Spain, so those results do not diminish their Asian Games form.

Thailand's recent form has been harder to read. They started December with two wins over Malaysia and Vietnam in the Southeast Asian Games, but their last three matches have all ended in defeat. The 111-46 loss to China in the Asian Games was particularly telling. They also lost to Indonesia 61-52 away and to the Philippines 73-70 away in December. There is no statistical data available for Thailand to compare with Japan's averages, but the results show a side struggling against Asian competition at this level.

Japan's statistical profile over six matches shows 27.83 rebounds per game and 15 assists, which suggests they control the boards and move the ball. Their 11.5 three-pointers per match indicate outside shooting is part of their attack. Thailand have no available statistics, so any comparison rests on match outcomes alone. The Asian Games venue is Aichi-Nagoya. Neutral ground, but Japan still play on familiar courts.

Thailand can only close the gap if they impose a physical game and disrupt Japan’s rhythm. A tight match would suit the visitors given how they have shown they can stay competitive in close matches, as the Philippines game in December demonstrated. If Japan come out flat after their winning streak, or if Thailand find a way to limit their three-point attempts, the margin could shrink significantly.