Connecticut Sun Women vs Toronto Tempo Women: match prediction on 25 September 2026

Connecticut Sun Women are the side I see progressing here, despite the match data carrying serious questions. The model projects 87.1 points for the hosts against 86.2 for Toronto Tempo, and that narrow edge, combined with Connecticut's one victory in three head-to-head meetings, tips the balance.

Both sides arrive in identical form. Connecticut have lost all five of their last matches, scoring 379 points and conceding 491 across that span. Toronto have mirrored that slump exactly, 381 scored and 500 conceded in five straight defeats. Neither side has tasted victory since August, and neither has managed a draw either. The form table tells the same story for both.

Their meetings this year have swung both ways. Toronto won 106-102 at home in June, then Connecticut responded with an 83-78 victory in Toronto on 29 April. The most recent encounter on 19 June saw Toronto edge it 101-97 in Connecticut. That gives Toronto two wins to Connecticut's one, but the margin of victory matters — Connecticut's win was by five, while Toronto's victories came by four and three.

Standings place Toronto one position above Connecticut, 6th versus 7th, though the point totals appear identical at zero across the different table references. After 43 games each, Connecticut hold 10 wins from 33 losses while Toronto have 11 from 32. The difference between them is marginal, and both are far from the top of the table.

The model's expectation of 87.1 to 86.2 suggests a tight contest, with neither side projected to exceed 90 points. Both teams have been conceding well over 90 in their recent defeats, so this projection represents a potential improvement.

Toronto’s two wins could still upset the model. They have beaten Connecticut twice already this season, and the most recent victory came on Connecticut's home court. If Toronto can replicate that 101-97 performance, the model's slight edge for the hosts evaporates. The margin between 87.1 and 86.2 is small enough that a single strong quarter could shift the entire balance.