Las Vegas Aces Women vs Seattle Storm Women: match prediction on 21 September 2026

Las Vegas Aces Women should win this match comfortably. They sit third in the standings with a 28-13 record while Seattle languish in eighth at 8-34, and the Aces have won five of their last six meetings against the Storm, including a 37-point demolition on 18 September when they won 114-77 away in Seattle. The 114-77 result on 18 September was the most lopsided, but even the closer contests went to the Aces — 101-91 on 9 June and 74-73 on 19 September 2025. Seattle's solitary win came at home in September 2025, 86-83. Seattle are eighth after 42 games with just eight wins. The gap separates title contenders from cellar-dwellers. The Aces are playing for positioning; the Storm are fighting to avoid the bottom of the table. Las Vegas have won four of their last five matches, scoring 478 points across those five games while conceding 403. Their only loss came at home against Atlanta Dream, 82-97. Seattle have managed just one victory in five — a 90-78 win over Toronto Tempo — and have lost four, averaging 368 points scored against 444 conceded. The difference in quality shows in the margins.

The model projects Las Vegas at 89.8 points and Seattle at 80.6, suggesting a narrow margin in this fixture despite the wider gulf in form. The draw probability sits at 0%, and the model expects fewer than three points of separation. That figure is an average across many simulated versions of the match — it does not mean the score will finish 90-81. It means the most likely range is tight. Seattle can only threaten this projection by controlling the tempo and limiting transition opportunities. They have to camp in the offensive end and make Las Vegas work for every possession. A draw suits the visitors — and given how they might try to run the clock down, that is the main threat to this conclusion. The Aces should have too much for Seattle, but the model's narrow projection suggests this will not be another 37-point affair unless Las Vegas come out firing from the opening tip.