Maccabi Ashdod B.C. vs Hapoel Jerusalem: match prediction on 8 September 2026

Maccabi Ashdod B.C. win this League Cup tie. The model projects 99.2 points for the hosts against 79.4 for Hapoel Jerusalem, and form widens the gap. Ashdod took four wins from five matches while Jerusalem managed three, and the scoring differential tells the same story.

Home advantage and momentum

Maccabi Ashdod B.C. delivered 455 points across their last five games, conceding 428. They beat Ironi Nahariya 94:83 at home on 11 June, an outlier in a otherwise consistent pattern. Four wins, one defeat, zero draws — the pattern is consistent.

Hapoel Jerusalem collected 422 points in five matches, surrendering 414. They lost 81:89 away to Hapoel Tel Aviv on 11 June and 84:88 at home on 9 June. The 98:91 away win over Hapoel HaEmek on 2 June was followed by a 82:71 home victory on 31 May and a 77:75 away triumph on 27 May. Three wins, two losses, no draws — the inconsistency shows in the defeats to Tel Aviv.

The model's projection

Expected points put Maccabi Ashdod B.C. at 99.2 and Hapoel Jerusalem at 79.4. The 0% draw probability and 0% total points line reflect the scoring split the model calculates from past performances. The point spread probability at 0% confirms the expectation of a single-digit margin. These figures come from points scored and conceded; they do not account for absences or fixture congestion.

What breaks the prediction

A draw suits Hapoel Jerusalem — and given how they run the clock down in tight games, that is the main threat. If Jerusalem slows the tempo and keeps the score within reach, the model's 20-point gap collapses. An early red card or injury to a key Ashdod scorer would also upend the projection, though neither is confirmed in the data.