New York Liberty Women vs Atlanta Dream Women: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Atlanta Dream Women are the side I'm backing for victory against New York Liberty Women on 24 September. The visitors have won the last encounter between these teams, 95:84, and sit at the summit of the table with 29 wins from 43 matches. The model projects Atlanta to score 85.4 points against New York's 85.5, but the recent meeting and current form suggest the visitors have the edge.

Atlanta Dream Women have won four of their last five matches, losing only to Portland 101:83 on 28 August. They've scored 476 points while conceding 406, an average of 95.2 points per game. New York Liberty Women have three wins and two losses in their last five outings, scoring 428 points and conceding 390. Their most recent defeat came at home to Atlanta on 22 September.

Over the last six meetings, New York Liberty Women have won four times while Atlanta Dream Women have taken two victories. Before that, Liberty won 104:90 at Atlanta on 11 June 2026. The overall record across 15 matches shows Liberty with 11 wins and Atlanta with 4, though the most recent meeting went the other way.

The statistical model projects New York Liberty Women to score 85.5 points and Atlanta Dream Women 85.4 points. Both teams have strong offensive records — Liberty average 70.1 points per game while Atlanta average 72.9. Atlanta's higher scoring rate in recent matches, combined with their victory in the last meeting, tips the balance.

This conclusion stops holding if New York Liberty Women can replicate their home-court dominance from earlier in the season. Liberty won 85:66 against Chicago Sky Women at home on 29 August and 86:81 against Atlanta on 17 June 2025. If they can match Atlanta's scoring output and exploit their historical head-to-head advantage, the visitors could find themselves on the wrong end of the result.