Perlas vs Jurbarkas: match prediction on 15 October 2026

I see no grounds to back Perlas. Jurbarkas have won four of five and are the firmer side going in, while the hosts have lost every game in that stretch. The model puts Jurbarkas on 82.3 points to Perlas's 80.1, and the recent head-to-head supports that margin.

Perlas's run has been straight losses. They lost at home to Palanga 81:103, then to Omega-Tauras 91:99. Away at Mazeikiai they fell 72:75, and at home to Telsiai 77:91. The last outing was a 80:94 defeat away to Kretinga. They have scored 401 points and conceded 462 across those five games, and they have zero points in the table from that period.

Jurbarkas look sharper. They beat Mazeikiai 91:62 away, then Palanga 88:78 at home. The only loss came in the King Mindaugas Cup against Gargždai 75:79. In the NKL they beat BC Kauno Atletas 102:78 away and Alytaus Patriotai 96:68 at home. They have tallied 452 points while allowing 365, and they sit on 12 points from five matches.

The two sides have split their meetings. Jurbarkas won 80:58 at home in January, and Perlas answered with a 98:53 victory at home in October. That earlier result was a wider margin, but the most recent meeting showed Jurbarkas in control.

The model expects Jurbarkas to edge the game by roughly two points. I would not call that a tight contest — the model's spread suggests a comfortable away win. The conclusion stops holding if Perlas find a way to match Jurbarkas's shooting efficiency, which they have not done in five straight games.

Outcome: Jurbarkas win

Confidence: 65%