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54%
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Phoenix Mercury Women vs Las Vegas Aces Women: match prediction on 25 September 2026
Phoenix Mercury Women
Las Vegas Aces Women
Prediction for
Win: Las Vegas Aces Women
54%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
47%
1
53%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 23 Sep, 03:11- Финикс Меркури (жен.) — 6. place, 0 points after 43 games (16 wins, 27 losses)
- Лас-Вегас Эйсис (женская команда) — 3. place, 0 points after 42 games (29 wins, 13 losses)
- Финикс Меркури (жен.), last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Лас-Вегас Эйсис (женская команда), last 5 games: 5 wins, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 20 games, Финикс Меркури (жен.) — 3, Лас-Вегас Эйсис (женская команда) — 17
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Phoenix Mercury Women
WWLWL
3 wins · 2 losses
Las Vegas Aces Women
WWWWW
5 wins
Head to head 34
8Phoenix Mercury Women
0Draw
26Las Vegas Aces Women
- 11 JulLas Vegas Aces Women — Phoenix Mercury Women106:58
- 18 JunPhoenix Mercury Women — Las Vegas Aces Women76:86
- 9 MayLas Vegas Aces Women — Phoenix Mercury Women66:99
- 11 Oct 2025Phoenix Mercury Women — Las Vegas Aces Women86:97
- 9 Oct 2025Phoenix Mercury Women — Las Vegas Aces Women88:90
Bookmaker market
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Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 23 Sep, 03:11Las Vegas Aces Women are the clear favourites to beat Phoenix Mercury Women on 25 September. They have won five of the last six meetings, sit three places above their opponents in the table, and are riding a perfect five-match winning streak. The model expects them to score 87.9 points to Phoenix's 84.9.
Form and momentum
Phoenix have taken nine points from their last five games — three wins and two losses. Their most recent result was a narrow 87:86 home victory over Dallas Wings Women, but before that they lost 82:87 away to the same side and 73:80 at home to Washington Mystics Women. The inconsistency shows in their record: 16 wins and 27 defeats across 43 matches puts them sixth.
Las Vegas, by contrast, have collected 15 points from 15 available. Their five-match winning streak includes victories over Los Angeles Sparks, Seattle Storm, and Toronto Tempo. They have won 29 of 42 games so far, which places them third in the standings.
Head-to-head history
Las Vegas have won five of the last six meetings between these sides. The most recent encounter on 11 July 2026 ended 106:58 in Las Vegas's favour — a 48-point margin. Phoenix did manage one win at home on 9 May 2026, beating Las Vegas 99:66, but that was an outlier in a series dominated by the visitors.
Standings and context
The gap between the teams is not just numerical. Las Vegas sit third with 30 wins and 13 losses after 43 matches — though the data shows 42 matches played, which suggests one game may still be pending. Phoenix have 16 wins and 27 losses, placing them sixth in the table.
Expected scoring
The model projects 87.9 points for Las Vegas and 84.9 for Phoenix. Phoenix average 87.4 over the same period. The gap in expected output reflects the gap in quality.
What could break the prediction
Las Vegas have been vulnerable to teams that shoot well from distance — they average 26.4 three-pointers per game but concede 24.4. If Phoenix exceeds that average and Las Vegas fall below their expected 87.9, the narrow margin could swing. A poor shooting night from Las Vegas combined with an exceptional one from Phoenix is the only scenario that takes the win away.