Portland Women vs Phoenix Mercury Women: match prediction on 18 September 2026

The fixture pits Phoenix against Portland, with the model projecting 92.7 points for Phoenix against 64.9 for Portland — a 27.8-point gap that reflects the visitors' superior offensive output and Portland's defensive struggles.

Portland have won just one of their last five matches, losing four while scoring 427 points and conceding 452. Phoenix have mirrored that record with one victory and four defeats, though their scoring balance is tighter — 432 points for, 430 against. Portland's losses have been heavy: 69:86 at home against Golden State, 78:96 away to Dallas, 100:105 at home to Washington. Phoenix's results are more mixed, including a 101:69 win over Toronto before back-to-back losses to Washington.

Two meetings this season, split evenly. Portland won 88:85 away at Phoenix on 16 August, but Phoenix had already taken 78:72 at Portland on 6 June. The earlier game suggests Phoenix can impose themselves on Portland's defence, while the recent victory shows Portland are capable of closing out tight contests.

Portland sit fifth in the standings after 40 matches, Phoenix seventh.

Phoenix would need to underperform significantly, or Portland would need to find their shooting touch — they have scored 101 against Atlanta but just 69 against Golden State in their last five. The swing between those performances shows volatility.