San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets: match prediction on 24 October 2026

The result marked a first victory for the hosts after a 76-90 home loss to Oklahoma City Thunder on October 21, while it was the Rockets’ second defeat in their last five matches. The model had predicted a Spurs win with 55% confidence, and the final score reflected that expectation as the home side held off the visitors’ offensive output in a contest that matched the projected total of approximately 220 points.

Match Dynamics

San Antonio Spurs controlled the tempo through Victor Wembanyama, who operated as the team’s primary conductor. The Spurs averaged 83.8 points and 36.9 points from three-point range over their last ten games, this shooting kept them in it against Houston’s defensive pressure. Houston Rockets relied on a balanced attack featuring Kevin Durant and Marcus Smart, lifting their average to 90.1. Smart, who signed a two-year, $13m deal, provided the versatility Ime Udoka sought to prevent the team from stagnating. The Rockets averaged 11.2 steals compared to San Antonio’s 8, attempting to disrupt the Spurs’ ball movement, which averaged 23.4 assists per game.

Statistical Breakdown

Key areas were closely matched. San Antonio Spurs recorded 45 total rebounds, with 11.5 on the offensive glass, while Houston Rockets secured 45.6 total rebounds, including 15.3 offensive boards. Turnovers were a deciding factor; San Antonio Spurs committed 16.5 turnovers on average, slightly higher than the Rockets’ 14.5. Despite the Rockets’ higher average points (90.1 to 83.8) and better steal count, the Spurs’ efficiency in the paint and from deep allowed them to secure the three-point margin. The head-to-head history showed San Antonio Spurs had won three of the last six meetings, including a high-scoring 145-120 victory earlier in the season, giving them the edge in this matchup.

Standings and Context

The result cut into the form tables, bringing the Spurs to 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games, whereas the Rockets fell to 3 wins and 2 losses. Assistant coaches view the Spurs as championship favourites for 2027, and this win validated the decision to demand more game control from Wembanyama. The Rockets, described by Marcus Smart as a "fearsome" team, showed resilience but could not overcome the Spurs’ home-court consistency in this specific fixture.