Seattle Storm Women vs Dallas Wings Women: match prediction on 24 September 2026

Dallas Wings Women to win at Seattle Storm on Wednesday. The visitors sit fourth in the standings with 26 victories from 42 games while Seattle have managed just 8 wins from 43 and are languishing in eighth place. Dallas have won four of their last five matches, including a 22-point demolition of Seattle 92:70 on 23 August, whereas the hosts have lost four of their last five outings by an average margin of 17 points.

Seattle's recent form offers little comfort. They scored 375 points and conceded 450 across their last five games, meaning they are losing by an average of 15 points per match. The only victory came against Toronto Tempo 90:78 on 27 August; since then they have lost at home to Las Vegas Aces 77:114 and to Los Angeles Sparks 74:90, then suffered away defeats against Golden State Valkyries Women 57:70 and Las Vegas Aces 77:98. The defensive numbers are telling — they are giving up points in bunches.

Dallas have been far more consistent. Their last five matches produced 463 points for and 395 against, a positive differential of 68. They lost narrowly away at Phoenix Mercury 86:87 on 22 September but have won four straight at home, including 97:77 against the Sparks and 97:71 against Connecticut Sun. They are scoring freely and defending adequately.

The head-to-head reinforces the pattern. Dallas have won four of the last six meetings, including two of the three encounters this year. Seattle's two victories came in 2025 — 95:60 at Dallas and 83:77 at home — but those results belong to a different season.

The model expects Dallas to score 86.3 points and Seattle 82.9, a narrow margin that fits the recent trend of close games with Dallas edging through. This conclusion stops holding if Seattle find their shooting touch — they scored 110 points against Dallas in June and could replicate that output — or if Dallas suffer an early injury to a key contributor, which would shift the balance toward a Seattle comeback.

Standings and momentum

Dallas sit fourth after 42 games with 26 wins and 17 losses. Seattle are eighth after 43 matches with just 8 wins and 35 defeats. The gap in quality is visible in the win percentages — Dallas are winning 61.9% of their games while Seattle manage 18.6%. That disparity shows in the recent form figures too.

What breaks the prediction

A Seattle victory is possible if they return to the form that saw them score 110 points in June's 112:110 loss, or if Dallas drop their intensity after building momentum. The model gives Seattle 82.9 expected points, which is respectable, but the visitors' 86.3 projection and their four wins in five games make Dallas the safer call.