South Korea vs Iran: match prediction on 18 September 2026

South Korea win this Asian Games encounter, backed by five straight victories and a model that projects them to outscore Iran by nearly twenty points.

South Korea's momentum

The hosts have not dropped a point in five matches, winning all five by margins that range from twelve to fifty-four points. Their highest output came against Jordan, 114-80 away, while the tightest victory was 82-66 at home against Saudi Arabia. They have scored 483 points across those five games, averaging 96.6 per match. The only blemish in their recent record came before this tournament, a 74-93 defeat to Lebanon on 27 August and two losses to Japan in mid-August. Since then they have been untroubled.

Iran's inconsistency

Iran have won three of five and lost two, with the defeats coming against Qatar at home, 53-59, and the Philippines away, 56-68. Their Asian Games record is stronger: victories over Bahrain, Jordan and Chinese Taipei. They average 67.6 points per game across the five matches, which is 29 points fewer than South Korea's output. The gap in scoring efficiency is visible in their field goal attempts—66.5 per game compared to South Korea's 62.5—but Iran have converted at a slightly higher rate.

Head-to-head context

The two sides met once, on 4 October 2023, when Iran won 89-82 at home in the Asian Games. That result was decided by seven points and came in a match where both teams shot efficiently. It is an outlier in a short history, and South Korea's current form—five wins from five—suggests the balance has shifted since then.

Model projections

The statistical model expects South Korea to score 84.5 points and Iran 64.9, a difference of 19.6. The probability of a draw is calculated at 0%, and the chance of both teams reaching double figures is also 0%. Three or more points—translating to a margin of 20 or more—carry a 0% probability in the model's current parameters, though the raw expectation points toward a comfortable home victory.

A draw would be the scenario that breaks this conclusion. Iran have shown they can stay competitive when shooting well, and their rebounding average of 32.25 per game exceeds South Korea's 27. If Iran controls the glass and limits turnovers below their current 10.25 per match, they could keep the scoreline close enough to force uncertainty. That is the only realistic path to a result outside the model's projection.