UNI Gyor Women vs Ujbuda BEAC Women: match prediction on 24 September 2026

UNI Győr Women should take the win despite Ujbuda BEAC's superior recent form, because the model's expected points and the long-term head-to-head pattern still favour the hosts.

The 79.6 to 71.4 projection holds. UNI Győr's three defeats in that same window included a 101-point loss to Ceglédi EKK and a narrow 92-93 defeat away, yet they also beat David Kornel KA 97-75 at home. The model does not weight opponent quality, but it does weight scoring output, and UNI Győr's average across those five games sits higher than Ujbuda's.

The head-to-head record runs seven to two in UNI Győr's favour over the years. The last two meetings went the other way — 83-57 and 65-59 — but before that UNI Győr had won four straight, including an 114-82 cup victory and a 113-55 away win. The recent shift matters, but the model treats every fixture equally and still lands on the hosts as favourites. The model rules out a draw and a close game.

Ujbuda BEAC's form is the main threat to this conclusion. They have not lost since 2 May, when they fell 86-68 away to Csata TKK. Their last five scorelines — 75-59, 59-56, 68-86, 73-67, 84-81 — show they can both dominate and struggle. The model's 71.4 expected points for them is not far below UNI Győr's 79.6, and if Ujbuda repeats their away performance from 2 May, the gap closes. A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat.

External models back the hosts at 59%. No injury or suspension news has been confirmed for either side, so the line-ups should be close to what we have seen recently. UNI Győr have scored 428 points in five games — an average of 85.6 — while Ujbuda have managed 359, or 71.8 per game. The model's expectation for UNI Győr is lower than their recent average, which suggests it accounts for the tougher opposition they will face.

Ujbuda’s 59-56 win over Csata TKK on 6 May changes the calculus. That match saw them limit their opponents to 56 points while scoring 59 themselves. If they can do the same against UNI Győr's higher-scoring attack, the model's projection shifts. The 0% draw probability would then become a possibility, and the 59% confidence for the hosts would evaporate.