UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki vs Helsinki Seagulls: match prediction on 6 October 2026

UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki to win against Helsinki Seagulls on 6 October 2026, 53% confidence. The hosts have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning four of the last six meetings, and the model puts them slightly ahead on expected points.

Form check

UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki have taken six points from their last five matches, three losses and two wins. Their most recent outing ended badly: a 85:109 defeat away to Kipinä Basket on 3 October. Before that they lost 89:95 at home to Pyrinto Tampere on 30 September. Their two victories came in the Cup against Tapiolan Honka 93:70 and against Helsinki Seagulls themselves 97:77 on 1 May.

Helsinki Seagulls sit on nine points from five games, three wins and two losses. They beat Lahti Basketball 76:70 at home on 2 October and lost 83:102 away to Kataja on 29 September. Their Cup campaign brought two wins: 85:80 against Lahti and 93:85 versus Kataja. They lost 77:97 away to UU-Korihait on 1 May.

Head-to-head

UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki have won four of the last six meetings between the sides. The results show a clear pattern: 97:77, 86:73, 90:88 and 92:76 in their favour, with only two losses at 62:95 and 81:85. The home advantage has been significant — three of their four wins came at their own venue.

Model expectations

The model projects 85.5 points for UU-Korihait Uusikaupunki and 84 for Helsinki Seagulls. The margin is narrow, just 1.5 points, but it tips the balance toward the hosts. The draw probability sits at 0%, which is standard for basketball where overtime resolves any tie.

What would change the picture

If Helsinki Seagulls can keep the game tight and force extra time, the model's edge disappears.

The model does not account for momentum swings, but the data points to a narrow victory for the side that has controlled this fixture in recent months.