Bahrain vs Nepal: match prediction on 31 August 2026

Bahrain to lose by 10 runs

The model projects Nepal at 160.1 runs against Bahrain's 150.6, a difference of 9.5 that rounds to ten. Both sides have won two and lost three of their last five games, but Nepal's higher projection comes from their away form in Australia where they managed two victories on the road. Bahrain have won two at home and lost three, including a heavy 200-132 defeat to Italy.

Of their last five matches, Nepal beat Uganda 209-204 at home on 18 August, lost to Tanzania 120-116 away on 15 August, suffered a 228-190 home defeat to Hong Kong on 14 August, won narrowly 79-76 against Singapore at home on 12 August, and opened their campaign with a 200-132 loss to Italy at home on 9 August.

Nepal's five-match sequence mirrors Bahrain's pattern of two wins and three losses. Of their last five matches, Nepal lost to Victoria CA XI 146-142 at home on 29 August, fell to Hyderabad Kingsmen Academy 197-166 away on 27 August, won away against Australian Capital Territory 144-140 on 26 August, won 154-115 away against Hobart Hurricanes Academy on 24 August, and concluded with a 101-99 away loss to Bangladesh High Performance XI on 22 August.

The model's run projections reflect the high-scoring nature of both teams' recent fixtures. Bahrain have scored 726 runs while conceding 828 across five matches. Nepal have posted 705 runs and allowed 699 in the same period. Neither side has kept a clean sheet in either direction, and the model assigns 0% probability to a draw or both teams failing to score. The expected margin of 9.5 runs is consistent with their recent results.

This conclusion holds unless Nepal's away form collapses. Bahrain have faced competition in the CWC Challenge League Group B. If the quality gap proves decisive, Bahrain could close the projected 10-run deficit.