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70%
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Leicestershire vs Middlesex: match prediction on 20 September 2026
Leicestershire
Middlesex
Prediction for
Win: Middlesex
56%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
44%
1
56%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 11:02- Лестершир — 1. place, 20 points after 8 games (5 wins, 3 losses)
- Мидлсекс — 1. place, 28 points after 8 games (7 wins, 1 losses)
- Лестершир, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Мидлсекс, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Лестершир — 0, Мидлсекс — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Leicestershire
LLWLL
1 win · 4 losses
Middlesex
WLWWW
4 wins · 1 loss
Head to head 10
2Leicestershire
0Draw
4Middlesex
- 29 Jun 2025Leicestershire — Middlesex—:534
- 16 May 2025Middlesex — Leicestershire—:—
- 30 Jun 2024Leicestershire — Middlesex—:—
- 3 May 2024Middlesex — Leicestershire407/8:306
- 18 Aug 2023Leicestershire — Middlesex173/5:191
Bookmaker market
No bookmaker data
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 18 Sep, 11:02Middlesex lead Leicestershire by eight points at the top of the table. Middlesex have won seven of their eight games, losing just once, while Leicestershire's five wins and three defeats leave them behind despite sitting in the same position.
Leicestershire have won two and lost three in their last five matches across all competitions, including a high-scoring County Championship victory over Hampshire at 579-577 and a heavy defeat to Somerset at 302-679. Middlesex have mirrored that pattern with two wins, two losses and one no-result in their last five, highlighted by a commanding 687-441 win away at Gloucestershire.
On 18 August 2023, Middlesex chased down Leicestershire's 173 to win by 18 runs in the One-Day Cup.
The model's run expectations reinforce the case for Middlesex. Their 242.4 expected runs versus Leicestershire's 224.6 indicates a clear gap in projected output. The 0% draw probability and 0% probability of combined run totals exceeding 467 point toward a decisive result rather than a tight contest.
Middlesex’s edge evaporates if Leicestershire post another 579.
The visitors' one-day cup pedigree, combined with their eight-point lead and the model's run expectations, gives them the edge. Leicestershire must replicate their highest-scoring performance of the season to challenge that advantage.