Sussex vs Nottinghamshire: match prediction on 15 September 2026

Nottinghamshire to win. The visitors carry a superior points-per-game ratio, have won four of their last five matches, and sit second in the table with only one defeat from six games. Sussex, fourth with 154 points from eight matches, have lost three of their last five and cannot match Nottinghamshire's consistency.

Nottinghamshire's record speaks plainly. Five victories from six County Championship Division One fixtures leaves them on 185 points, two places above Sussex. Their last defeat came on 16 August against Leicestershire in a One-Day Cup match. Since then they have beaten Hampshire at home, defeated Leicestershire at Trent Bridge, won away at Warwickshire, and saw off Surrey on the road. The only blemish in their recent run is that solitary loss.

Sussex have struggled for rhythm. Of their last five matches, two ended in victory—both in the County Championship—but three defeats have punctuated their campaign. They lost heavily at home to Somerset, 312 to 552, and were edged out away at Warwickshire by a single run. Their most recent fixture, a home win against Surrey, offered little reassurance given the pattern that preceded it.

The model projects Nottinghamshire to post 284.1 runs, Sussex 245.5. Those figures reflect the visitors' stronger batting output across their recent matches. Nottinghamshire scored 481 against Hampshire and 629 against Leicestershire in consecutive home games. Sussex's highest total in the same period was 560 against Surrey, but their defensive frailties—conceding 552 at home to Somerset—suggest vulnerability under pressure.

A draw suits neither side in this context. Nottinghamshire need points to maintain their challenge, and Sussex require a win to close the gap. If the visitors' batsmen fail to capitalise on early breakthroughs, or if Sussex's bowlers restrict them to below 250 runs, the conclusion shifts. That is the only scenario where Nottinghamshire's advantage evaporates.