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Surrey vs Glamorgan: match prediction on 15 September 2026
Surrey
Glamorgan
Prediction for
Win: Surrey
55%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2) · by our model
55%
1
45%
2
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 13 Sep, 10:33- Суррей — 6. place, 137 points after 5 games (2 wins, 3 losses)
- Гламорган — 7. place, 127 points after 8 games (3 wins, 5 losses)
- Суррей, last 5 games: 2 wins, 3 losses
- Гламорган, last 5 games: 1 wins, 4 losses
- Head-to-head: 8 games, Суррей — 6, Гламорган — 2
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Surrey
LWWLL
2 wins · 3 losses
Glamorgan
LLLLW
1 win · 4 losses
Head to head 15
10Surrey
0Draw
4Glamorgan
- 19 JunGlamorgan — Surrey—:—
- 13 Aug 2025Surrey — Glamorgan146/5:308/7
- 11 Jul 2025Surrey — Glamorgan224/4:222/6
- 3 Jun 2025Glamorgan — Surrey142:149/8
- 28 Jul 2024Surrey — Glamorgan121:123/3
Bookmaker market
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 13 Sep, 10:33Surrey favourite at 65 per cent. The visitors have dominated this pairing across formats with six victories in eight meetings, and their recent form shows they can hold their nerve. Glamorgan's string of four defeats suggests they have struggled to maintain consistency in their last five fixtures.
Surrey's mixed results
The hosts have won two of their last five County Championship matches but lost three, including a 321-560 defeat to Sussex away from home. Their 270-267 victory over Yorkshire at home showed they can hold their nerve, while the 481-279 win against Essex demonstrated their batting depth. They sit sixth with 137 points from five matches, three wins short of the top positions but well clear of the relegation zone.
Glamorgan's slump
Glamorgan have lost four of their last five matches and sit seventh with 127 points from eight games. Their most recent outing saw them crushed 134-391 by Warwickshire at home, a result that left them with just one win across those five fixtures. They have played three more matches than Surrey and still trail by ten points in the table, a gap that has widened rather than closed.
Head-to-head record
Surrey have won six of eight meetings between these sides across all competitions. The most recent County Championship fixture ended with Surrey victorious away at Glamorgan. In shorter formats, Surrey won a T20 Blast encounter 149-142 in June 2025 and a One-Day Cup match 123-121 in July 2024.
What the numbers suggest
The projection puts Surrey at 243 and Glamorgan at 226.6, a difference of just over 16 runs. Draw probability: zero. The expected runs for both teams are close enough that a tight finish is possible, but Surrey's superior head-to-head record tips the balance.
A draw would suit Glamorgan's approach to holding their nerve, and if they can bowl Surrey out for under 200 runs in their first innings, the match could slip away from the hosts. The main threat is if Surrey's batting collapses early, as they have shown vulnerability in chasing totals against teams like Nottinghamshire and Sussex.