France played Italy in the UEFA Nations League League A match at the Stade de France on October 2nd, 2026, and the game ended 1-1. Michael Olise gave the hosts the lead in the 55th minute before Alessandro Bastoni equalised for Italy 13 minutes later. The match was decided by those two moments, and everything else was aftermath.
Olise came for a cross he never reached hours earlier in training, then made it count here. Bastoni, usually a defender, found himself in the right place at the right time. By then Italy had already seen Nicolo Fagioli booked, and the game was settling into something neither side had planned for.
Upamecano was sent off in the 85th minute after picking up his second yellow card, and the stadium fell silent for a moment. He'd already been cautioned earlier in the half. Italy made several changes in the closing stages—Pio Esposito and Sandro Tonali came on together in the 62nd minute, and France brought Désiré Doue and Rayan Cherki on at the same time.
And here's the thing about the statistics. France had 65 per cent possession, eight shots on target, and only managed 1.21 expected goals. Italy, with 35 per cent possession and just two shots on target, posted 1.46 expected goals. The numbers don't lie, but they don't tell the whole story either. The game was decided in a few seconds, not over 90.
To be fair, this was exactly the kind of match where the table goes out of the window. France remain top of the group with six points from two wins, while Italy sit third with three points from one win and one loss. The host nation had won their previous two matches 1-0 against Belgium and Turkey, and Italy had beaten Turkey 4-1 before losing to Belgium.
We had tipped France for victory with 73 per cent confidence, but this match decided to go another way. Bastoni's equaliser came from a moment of chaos rather than a created chance, and that's the kind of thing you can't predict. The result keeps France unbeaten in the group, but it doesn't feel like a win for anyone.
