Al-jolan Sc vs Newroz: match prediction on 14 September 2026

Al-jolan Sc are likely to avoid defeat against Newroz in this Iraqi League fixture on 14 September. The model gives the hosts a slight edge with 1.1 expected goals to Newroz's 1.0, and the draw probability sits at 30%.

The conclusion stops holding if Newroz scores early and manages the game. They have conceded 30% of their goals in the final 15 minutes, but they also score 30% in that period. If they open the scoring before the break and slow the tempo, Al-jolan's tendency to fire in the opening 15 minutes becomes irrelevant.

Al-jolan Sc have taken 8 points from their last 5 matches, winning 2 and drawing 2. They won 1:0 at home against Al Karkh and drew 1:1 with Zakho on the same ground. Their only loss came 0:1 to Al Shorta SC at home. They are not a dominant side but they are difficult to beat at their own stadium.

Newroz sit 4th with 11 points from 6 matches, but their away form tells a different story. They lost 0:1 away to Al-Talaba and 0:1 away to Gharraf in their last two visits. They did win 2:0 away at Naft Maysan, but that was followed by a 0:0 home draw with Duhok.

The goal-timing patterns add another layer. Al-jolan score 63% of their goals in the first 15 minutes and then drop to 13% in each subsequent segment. Newroz concede 30% of their goals after the 76th minute. If Al-jolan can hold the lead into the closing stages, they may have a chance to see out the game, though they also concede 40% of their goals in the final 15 minutes.

The model's most likely scores are 1:0 at 13%, 1:1 at 13%, and 0:0 at 12%. Both teams-to-score probability sits at 42%, suggesting a tight contest. Newroz's top scorer Mohammad Ridha Jalil Mezher Al Elayawi has 7 goals this season, while Al-jolan's Hemeya Tanjy leads with 2. The difference in firepower may not be decisive in a game where the model expects just 2.1 goals between them.

Al-jolan attack at 123 times per match compared to Newroz's 91.5, but Newroz take more shots on target at 4.44 per game. The hosts have won 2 of their last 5, drawn 2, and lost 1. Newroz have won 2, drawn 1, and lost 2 in the same period. The form is similar, but the venue and Newroz's away struggles tip the balance slightly toward the hosts.

A home win or draw is the most probable outcome. The model does not expect a high-scoring affair, and Newroz's difficulty in winning away from home makes a narrow result likely. If the match goes to the final minutes with the score level, Al-jolan's tendency to concede late could be a factor, but their home record suggests they will fight for every point.