QMJHL
Quebec Remparts
Shawinigan Cataractes
Prediction for Quebec Remparts — Shawinigan Cataractes
49%
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Al Shorta SC — Mosul: match prediction
Al Shorta SC
Mosul
Prediction for
Win: Al Shorta SC
57%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
55%
1
27%
X
18%
2
Average bookmaker line (32)
1.64
1
3.39
X
4.89
2
Odds range
1.59 — 1.72
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 10:40- Аш-Шурта — 10. place, 4 points after 3 games (1 wins, 1 draws, 1 losses)
- Могул — 1. place, 7 points after 3 games (2 wins, 1 draws, 0 losses)
- Аш-Шурта, last 5 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 losses
- Могул, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
- Head-to-head: 2 games, Аш-Шурта — 2, Могул — 0
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Al Shorta SC
DDLWW
2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss
Mosul
WDWWL
3 wins · 1 draw · 1 loss
Head to head 2
2Al Shorta SC
0Draw
0Mosul
All head-to-head
Bookmaker market
32
bookmakers counted
1.64
Average bookmaker line
1.59 — 1.72
Odds range
More predictions
See all
Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 29 Aug, 10:40Al Shorta SC to win. The head-to-head is the deciding factor here: the hosts have beaten Mosul twice already this season, including a 3:0 victory at home and a 1:0 win away. The model backs that pattern, expecting Al Shorta to score 1.8 goals to Mosul's 0.9.
The hosts sit 11th with 4 points from three matches, but their record against the visitors tells a different story. Al Shorta SC won 3:0 at home on 13 January and followed up with a 1:0 victory in Mosul on 12 March. The visitors are now 2nd with 7 points, an unbeaten run of 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five games, but they have yet to find a way past Al Shorta this season.
Mosul's attacking output has been sharp. A. Al-Dali leads the league with 9 goals, and the side has netted 10 in their last five matches while conceding just 3. They won 3:0 at home against Karbala on 26 August and 2:1 against Diyala three days later. Their recent form is stronger on paper, but the model does not factor in momentum — it relies on historical goal averages, which still favour the hosts.
Al Shorta SC's goal distribution shows vulnerability late on. Thirty percent of goals conceded come in the final 15 minutes, and 34% of their own goals arrive in the same period. Mosul shares that trait: 34% of their goals scored in the closing stages, 25% conceded across the 46-60 and 76-90 minute blocks. The late-game patterns suggest either side could swing the result, but the model's 1.8 expected goals for Al Shorta accounts for sustained pressure rather than a single burst.
The most likely outcomes cluster around narrow home victories. A 1:0 scoreline carries a 12% probability, 2:0 sits at 10%, and a 1:1 draw follows at 11%. Both teams to score lands at 51%, and the chance of three or more goals also reaches 51%. The draw probability is 23%, which means the model sees a home win as the baseline outcome, not a coin-flip scenario.
This conclusion stops holding if the head-to-head pattern breaks. If Mosul adapts their approach — they have not faced this tactical setup before — or if Al Shorta SC's late-game defensive frailty is exploited early, the expected result shifts. A draw suits the visitors given how they manage games, and that is the main threat to the prediction.