Belgium vs France: match prediction on 28 September 2026

I'm backing Belgium to win at 3.78. The market has drifted on the home side by 9.1 per cent, pushing the odds up from 3.53, while our estimate sits at 41 per cent against the line's 25 per cent. That 16-point gap tells me the bookmakers are pricing in the head-to-head record without accounting for what Belgium's been building.

Belgium have won four of their last five matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding just six. They're particularly dangerous after the break — 23 per cent of their goals come between the 46th and 60th minute, and 35 per cent arrive in the final 15 minutes. France, meanwhile, have conceded 38 per cent of their goals in that same closing period. The pattern suggests Belgium will push forward when the game opens up.

France arrive without Ibrahima Konaté, their regular centre-back, who picked up a knee injury in training and will miss seven to eight days. Leny Yoro has been called up as replacement. That's a significant absence in defence, especially against a Belgium side that has scored in every match over the last month. France's own defensive record in recent games has been mixed — they lost 4-6 to England and 0-2 to Spain in the World Cup window.

The current squad composition is different, and Belgium's attacking options — De Ketelaere with four goals, Lukaku with three — are in better rhythm than they've been in this fixture before.

This prediction stops holding if France control the early period. Belgium have conceded 40 per cent of their goals between the 16th and 30th minute, and if France can impose themselves in that window, the match could slip away. A draw suits the visitors — and given how they run the clock down, that is the main threat.