Champions League
Montpellier
Skanderborg AGF
Prediction for Montpellier — Skanderborg AGF
54%
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Belgium vs France: match prediction on 28 September 2026
Belgium
France
Prediction for
Slight edge: Belgium
41%
probability
Outcome probabilities (1X2)
24%
1
24%
X
51%
2
Average bookmaker line (49)
3.86
1
3.87
X
1.85
2
Odds range
3.20 — 4.25
for outcome 1
Prediction fixed and will not change after kick-off
Reasoning
Based on data as of 27 Sep, 19:55- Бельгия — 1. place, 3 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
- Франция — 2. place, 3 points after 1 games (1 wins, 0 losses)
- Бельгия, last 5 games: 4 wins, 1 losses
- Франция, last 5 games: 3 wins, 2 losses
- Head-to-head: 3 games, Бельгия — 0, Франция — 3
Key factors
Form last 5 matches
Belgium
WWLWL
3 wins · 2 losses
France
WLLWW
3 wins · 2 losses
Head to head 4
0Belgium
0Draw
4France
- 14 Oct 2024Belgium — France1:2
- 9 Sep 2024France — Belgium2:0
- 1 Jul 2024France — Belgium1:0
- 7 Oct 2021Belgium — France2:3
Bookmaker market
49
bookmakers counted
3.86
Average bookmaker line
3.20 — 4.25
Odds range
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Analytical content. Not a call to gamble. 18+
Prediction commentary
Based on data as of 27 Sep, 19:55Belgium defeat France to break losing streak
The result completed a reversal of form for the hosts, who had lost all four previous meetings with the visitors since October 2021. The betting market reflected the visitors’ status as favourites throughout the week.
France arrived in Brussels as heavy favourites, with betting prices shortening against the hosts. The odds for a French win drifted from 1.90 to 1.85, while the price for a Belgian victory lengthened from 3.53 to 3.85. The model predicted a tight contest with expected goals of 1.4 for Belgium and 1.3 for France, estimating a 29% chance of a draw. France carried momentum from a 1–0 win over Turkey, while Belgium had secured a 2–0 victory against Italy, both matches played away from home.
The head-to-head record offered no comfort to Belgium prior to the match. France had won the last four encounters, including a 2–0 win in Brussels and a 1–0 victory in the European Championship in July 2024. Belgium’s recent form suggested resilience, with four wins in their last five matches across all competitions. They had scored 15 goals and conceded only six during that run, with a high proportion of their goals coming in the final 15 minutes of matches.
France’s defensive vulnerability was evident in their previous loss to England by 6–4, though they had since tightened up against Turkey. Belgium’s attacking output, led by Charles Marc De Ketelaere with four goals in six months, proved decisive against a French side missing Ibrahima Konaté through injury.