CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna: match prediction on 30 August 2026

I see CSKA Sofia to win. The gap between 13 points from five games and 4 from six tells the story before the whistle blows, and the model's 1.7 expected goals for the hosts against 0.6 for the visitors points the same way.

The table speaks plainly

CSKA Sofia sit fourth with 13 points after five matches, having won four and drawn one without losing. Cherno More Varna occupy tenth with just 4 points from six games, their record of one win, one draw and four defeats leaving them well adrift. A nine-point difference after five rounds does not guarantee anything, but it sets the tone for what this fixture should look like.

Recent form cuts both ways

The last five outings for CSKA Sofia brought two wins and three losses, with nine goals scored and eight conceded. Their most recent results include back-to-back European defeats against OFI Crete, 0-2 at home and 0-3 away, but before that they dismantled Botev Vratsa 5-0 and beat Septemvri Sofia 3-0. Cherno More Varna managed only one victory in their last five, that 3-1 win over Dunav Ruse at home, while the other four visits ended in defeat. They lost 1-4 to CSKA 1948, 2-3 to Ludogorets, 0-1 to Botev Plovdiv and 0-3 to Spartak Varna, conceding twelve goals in the process.

Goals come in bursts

CSKA Sofia have scored 44% of their goals in the final 15 minutes of matches, with another 20% arriving between the 61st and 75th minute. Cherno More Varna follow a similar pattern, putting 45% of their 11 goals into the closing quarter, though they have not found the net at all between the 31st and 45th minute. The model expects CSKA Sofia to score 1.7 goals and Cherno More Varna 0.6, with the most likely outcome a 1-0 victory at 16% probability, followed by 2-0 at 14% and 1-1 at 10%.

Head-to-head does not promise much

Twelve meetings between these sides have produced three wins for CSKA Sofia, five draws and four for Cherno More Varna. The most recent result came on 6 December 2025, when Cherno More Varna won 2-0 at home. Before that, CSKA Sofia won 2-1 in a cup tie in April 2025, while three of the last five league encounters ended goalless.

When the prediction breaks down

If they absorb pressure and hit on the break in the final quarter, the 23% draw probability could materialise, and the model's expectations shift accordingly.

65%